Friday, April 25, 2008

Junta offers Burmese stark choice

BBC Burmese service

Burma's military rulers have finally published a draft constitution - after a 15-year delay. The results have not met with universal approval.

"As soon as I got the book, I thoroughly checked it to see if any page was missing," says Ko Moe.

Moe, in his early 40s, describes himself as a "student activist-turned-businessman".

He says he is surprised that teenagers today are interested in the draft constitution - which Burmese people are due to vote on in a referendum on 10 May.

"At the bookshop, I saw teenagers and those in their early 20s, probably university students, buying the draft constitution," he says.


"I said to myself - they were also stung by the Saffron Revolution," he says, referring to the protests led by Buddhist monks that were quickly suppressed by the military regime last September.

Hopes of peace

Moe took part in pro-democracy demonstrations 20 years ago, and many of his friends ended up in jail.

The protests were followed by general elections in 1990, but the military rulers never handed over power to a civilian government.

Instead, they began the long drawn-out process to draw up a new constitution.

"I know that the majority of people do not like this constitution. Taxi drivers, manual workers and even government employees will reject this constitution," Moe says.

But he knows it may not turn out the way he wants.

The government-run newspaper New Light of Myanmar had a recent headline entitled: "Let us all cast 'yes' vote in the national interest."

The military regime, after being in power for two decades, is not without its supporters.

"I will support the constitution because it allows the military, politicians and people to live peacefully," says Ohn Lwin from Rangoon.

Boycott calls

Although many Burmese people would favour a constitution of some sort, there are lots of disagreements over this draft - and it presents a conundrum for some.

Firstly the winners of the 1990 elections, the National League for Democracy (NLD), have declared the constitutional process illegal.

They have insisted that the constitution must be drawn up by elected representatives and are calling for a "no" vote.

Secondly the military has reserved substantial powers for itself in the draft constitution.

For example, 25% of the seats in all assemblies are allocated to military representatives, and the chief of armed forces can assume state power under "emergency provisions".

Critics say this is not a democratic constitution and will ensure continued military supremacy in Burma.

Thirdly, credibility of the outcome is also an issue, as the ruling generals have rejected the UN's offer to monitor the referendum.

Moreover many ethnic groups fear that the constitution does not guarantee their rights. Some ethnic groups are also calling for a boycott of the referendum.

Prof Joseph Silverstein, a long-time Burma-watcher from Rutgers University in the US, thinks the role of the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) is key.

"If it were approved I think there would be protests and a lot of demonstrations, there would be criticism from the UN, United States and Western European countries," he says.

"But in the end it will stand, because the position of the Asean and the world generally is that this is an internal matter."

The draft constitution stipulates that the document will be approved if more than half of those turning out vote "yes". And a 50% turnout is necessary to make the referendum valid.

In other words, the constitution could be approved by a "yes" vote from just over 25% of eligible voters.

The regime has not said what would happen if the constitution was rejected.

"No" campaigners say that rejection of the constitution would deepen the political crisis and force the regime to come to the negotiating table.

But many doubt that view.

It will certainly give the military more time to hold on to power, and start another process which may stretch for many more years to come.

Source

No comments:

Post a Comment